Implication of Standoff between Japan and China over Senkaku /Diaoyu Islands
It all began when because of sheer political interest, one politician sought to raise funds to buy Senkaku islands, and what followed was a vicious circle . I do not know how much he succeeded in getting popularity in Japan after that but he definitely succeeded in arousing public and Government sentiments in both China and Japan . Senkaku seems to be the center of the zero sum game that followed after Japanese Government's decision to buy private islands from their Japanese owner. These islands have been under the Japanese Government control hitherto.
Internal political turmoils seems to be more at heart of such decision. Japan is also in midst of political crisis with incumbent Government losing popularity and election is due in next year. Japan's recent move to buy island can be compared to similar move by China when it established Sansa city over one of the island of the Paracels claimed by Taiwan, Philippines,Vietnam and Brunei.
China is also undergoing a change in leadership and speculation of health of it's Vice President who is going to be take leadership of country in coming weeks, has already found it's place in top notch journals and papers.
Japan's Position
The decision, to buy islands has both national and international implications and is clearly not taken by Japanese Government by itself. US and Japan has defense pact which put Japan's defense under US umbrella. It would be unwise to think that USA would not have been consulted before taking such a important decision . Japan's Government is wise enough to see a possible military confrontation with China on this issue and know their heavy dependence on US military clout to avert any Chinese misadventures. Also, it is the US presence that would primarily keep Chinese on bay . Ventured by Chinese, after precedence of similar act by Japanese to unfurl flag on the islands under the Japanese control, had already done enough to fuel national sentiments in both countries. Also such sentiments become more prominent
when it comes to Japan. Japan is under intense internal political pressure to buy these islands. However buying of these island came as surprise and bold move by Japanese leader. Apparently you can see a small boy(Japan) coming up against a big boy(China) thinking his Father (USA) will help in forcing big boy to retreat . But this big boy, in his youth can cause stirs in hearts of his father too.
China's Position
The issue of Senkaku has aroused the feeling of Chinese people. No doubt that Chinese media has helped to fuel this sentiments further. But unlike in democratic countries where media acts on it's own , in China, it's the state voice. Chinese media is actually the Government's voice and speaks of it's sentiments. Large scale demonstration, protest against Japan can be a part of strategy followed by China. No doubt that matters concerning Japan fuel the people sentiments and their antipathy for Japan because of Japan's untold atrocities during the 2nd world war . However to utilize such sentiments and channelize it in desired forms, when required is done by Government in one way or another. Large scale demonstration can well be orchestrated by State.
These demonstration has two implications :
1) Giving world a firm message aboutthe Chinese people anger over the issue of the Senkaku island
2) To arouse nationalism and put people behind Govt in case of any war . Now the demand that are coming out of this is to get the island from Japan.
Implication of the issue
a) China has territorial disputes with Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia,Korea and Japan over a series of Island like Parcel, Spratley etc. World will be watching China's next move anxiously with fingers crossed especially those nations having territorial disputes with China and the Uncle Sam .
Any laxity from China in handling this situation can give a boast to US power and acknowledge it's hegemony. Not only this , it will encourage other nation to make such bold move . Chinese know it well and they already have send two armed ship in region to send strong signals to Japan and to to deal with possible military confrontation .
b) War :
Possibility of full scale war does not look evident . However possibility of small military confrontation cannot be ruled out. Large scale demonstration in China is a part of it's strategy to send Japan & the world a strong message that how much it takes the issue related to island seriously . Chinese Government has forced itself to act aggressively. Nation pride has to be restored and China has to emerged victorious otherwise these controlled agitation can turn against it's own Government . There is also possibility of pro democratic supporter trying to manipulate the condition to promote for their cause and try to turn these agitation against Government .
c)Economy:
China accounts for 20 % of Japanese export and also it's rare earth material that China supply to Japan that is lifeline of electronic industry. Any escalation of conflict can severly hit economic ties between two country. Though Japanese companies employs millions of people in China but it's still Japan would be more on the receiving end .
d) USA:
The issue has come as testing ground for US power in region as well and can be seen as indirect confrontation between USA and China.
What if USA leaves:
Japan and US has security pact and defending Senkaku islands comes under ambit of the pact . There's a view among scholar that may be, in case of full blown confrontation US will leave Japan on it's own as it may hurt it's economy which is heavily dependent on Chinese and value life of Americans more than it does for other. However it should be obvious that pulling back from the security pact or modifying security pact to avoid confrontation will give the deathly blow to USA interests in ASIA(South-East, South and East ). Not only this it will encourage China to follow aggressive policy for solving territorial disputes with countries like Philippines and others which as part of US entourage . Also USA backing off from the region will lead to Chinese hegemony in region and a blot for it.
What if US stays
It's more likely that US will stay and not leave the Japan on it's own fate. Scholars usually cite cases as that of Egypt and Tunsia., when US allowed the friendly General to yield to popular movements there . Supporting a movement against dictator was done to save face and to prevent it's image getting tarnished. Tunisia and Egyptian's people movement against dictator had taken a international character, all thanks to media and had drawn the world attention to it . This conflict is different and is against mighty China against Japan who is under US military clout . Also as campaign for next Presidential election is going in US, any laxity from incumbent US President on this issue will send wrong signal to people and can affect it's prospectus of winning election
Conclusion
Now from above 4 points , we can waive off the possibility off US leaving Japan on it's own fate , rather it will engage itself more diplomatically to find the solution of present crisis. Certainly US military and diplomatic analyst have already though of possible conflict and other scenario arising out of this situation . They should have anticipated China modest to extreme moves. As we know of China, it will certainly push the situation to the brink of war for getting maximum out of negotiating table . China is waiting for leadership transfer and also the heath of new to be President is drawing attention of world. It's look like China will take decisive step once new Premier comes into power . Till then , it can try to push Japan and USA diplomatically .
Japan can legitimatize the buying of Island which are under their own control similarly on the line on which China established Sansa city in one of disputed Islands. Military conflict of small scale cannot be ruled out but confining it's limit and extent of such conflict will only be key to prevent full scale war. Japan a economic world power should not be underestimated in military terms too. With US support Japan can be more formidable than ever before.
Author
Pawan Ghildiyal
It all began when because of sheer political interest, one politician sought to raise funds to buy Senkaku islands, and what followed was a vicious circle . I do not know how much he succeeded in getting popularity in Japan after that but he definitely succeeded in arousing public and Government sentiments in both China and Japan . Senkaku seems to be the center of the zero sum game that followed after Japanese Government's decision to buy private islands from their Japanese owner. These islands have been under the Japanese Government control hitherto.
Internal political turmoils seems to be more at heart of such decision. Japan is also in midst of political crisis with incumbent Government losing popularity and election is due in next year. Japan's recent move to buy island can be compared to similar move by China when it established Sansa city over one of the island of the Paracels claimed by Taiwan, Philippines,Vietnam and Brunei.
China is also undergoing a change in leadership and speculation of health of it's Vice President who is going to be take leadership of country in coming weeks, has already found it's place in top notch journals and papers.
Japan's Position
The decision, to buy islands has both national and international implications and is clearly not taken by Japanese Government by itself. US and Japan has defense pact which put Japan's defense under US umbrella. It would be unwise to think that USA would not have been consulted before taking such a important decision . Japan's Government is wise enough to see a possible military confrontation with China on this issue and know their heavy dependence on US military clout to avert any Chinese misadventures. Also, it is the US presence that would primarily keep Chinese on bay . Ventured by Chinese, after precedence of similar act by Japanese to unfurl flag on the islands under the Japanese control, had already done enough to fuel national sentiments in both countries. Also such sentiments become more prominent
when it comes to Japan. Japan is under intense internal political pressure to buy these islands. However buying of these island came as surprise and bold move by Japanese leader. Apparently you can see a small boy(Japan) coming up against a big boy(China) thinking his Father (USA) will help in forcing big boy to retreat . But this big boy, in his youth can cause stirs in hearts of his father too.
China's Position
The issue of Senkaku has aroused the feeling of Chinese people. No doubt that Chinese media has helped to fuel this sentiments further. But unlike in democratic countries where media acts on it's own , in China, it's the state voice. Chinese media is actually the Government's voice and speaks of it's sentiments. Large scale demonstration, protest against Japan can be a part of strategy followed by China. No doubt that matters concerning Japan fuel the people sentiments and their antipathy for Japan because of Japan's untold atrocities during the 2nd world war . However to utilize such sentiments and channelize it in desired forms, when required is done by Government in one way or another. Large scale demonstration can well be orchestrated by State.
These demonstration has two implications :
1) Giving world a firm message aboutthe Chinese people anger over the issue of the Senkaku island
2) To arouse nationalism and put people behind Govt in case of any war . Now the demand that are coming out of this is to get the island from Japan.
Implication of the issue
a) China has territorial disputes with Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia,Korea and Japan over a series of Island like Parcel, Spratley etc. World will be watching China's next move anxiously with fingers crossed especially those nations having territorial disputes with China and the Uncle Sam .
Any laxity from China in handling this situation can give a boast to US power and acknowledge it's hegemony. Not only this , it will encourage other nation to make such bold move . Chinese know it well and they already have send two armed ship in region to send strong signals to Japan and to to deal with possible military confrontation .
b) War :
Possibility of full scale war does not look evident . However possibility of small military confrontation cannot be ruled out. Large scale demonstration in China is a part of it's strategy to send Japan & the world a strong message that how much it takes the issue related to island seriously . Chinese Government has forced itself to act aggressively. Nation pride has to be restored and China has to emerged victorious otherwise these controlled agitation can turn against it's own Government . There is also possibility of pro democratic supporter trying to manipulate the condition to promote for their cause and try to turn these agitation against Government .
c)Economy:
China accounts for 20 % of Japanese export and also it's rare earth material that China supply to Japan that is lifeline of electronic industry. Any escalation of conflict can severly hit economic ties between two country. Though Japanese companies employs millions of people in China but it's still Japan would be more on the receiving end .
d) USA:
The issue has come as testing ground for US power in region as well and can be seen as indirect confrontation between USA and China.
What if USA leaves:
Japan and US has security pact and defending Senkaku islands comes under ambit of the pact . There's a view among scholar that may be, in case of full blown confrontation US will leave Japan on it's own as it may hurt it's economy which is heavily dependent on Chinese and value life of Americans more than it does for other. However it should be obvious that pulling back from the security pact or modifying security pact to avoid confrontation will give the deathly blow to USA interests in ASIA(South-East, South and East ). Not only this it will encourage China to follow aggressive policy for solving territorial disputes with countries like Philippines and others which as part of US entourage . Also USA backing off from the region will lead to Chinese hegemony in region and a blot for it.
What if US stays
It's more likely that US will stay and not leave the Japan on it's own fate. Scholars usually cite cases as that of Egypt and Tunsia., when US allowed the friendly General to yield to popular movements there . Supporting a movement against dictator was done to save face and to prevent it's image getting tarnished. Tunisia and Egyptian's people movement against dictator had taken a international character, all thanks to media and had drawn the world attention to it . This conflict is different and is against mighty China against Japan who is under US military clout . Also as campaign for next Presidential election is going in US, any laxity from incumbent US President on this issue will send wrong signal to people and can affect it's prospectus of winning election
Conclusion
Now from above 4 points , we can waive off the possibility off US leaving Japan on it's own fate , rather it will engage itself more diplomatically to find the solution of present crisis. Certainly US military and diplomatic analyst have already though of possible conflict and other scenario arising out of this situation . They should have anticipated China modest to extreme moves. As we know of China, it will certainly push the situation to the brink of war for getting maximum out of negotiating table . China is waiting for leadership transfer and also the heath of new to be President is drawing attention of world. It's look like China will take decisive step once new Premier comes into power . Till then , it can try to push Japan and USA diplomatically .
Japan can legitimatize the buying of Island which are under their own control similarly on the line on which China established Sansa city in one of disputed Islands. Military conflict of small scale cannot be ruled out but confining it's limit and extent of such conflict will only be key to prevent full scale war. Japan a economic world power should not be underestimated in military terms too. With US support Japan can be more formidable than ever before.
Author
Pawan Ghildiyal
